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On 04/10/2005 Software Scientific's Concept Engine TM read 1,000 documents and considered 36,244 links

Research based on Estimates of remaining worldwide oil reserves.

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An Oil Enigma: Production Falls Even as Reserves Rise | EnergyBulletin.net | Energy and Peak Oil News
94% (1)
http: //energybulletin. net/ 591. html
unknown date

An Oil Enigma: Production Falls Even as Reserves Rise | EnergyBulletin.net | Energy and Peak Oil News

Heavy Oil: A Solution to Dwindling Domestic Oil Supplies
94% (2)
http: //www. petroleumequities. com/ HeavyOilReport. htm
8/12/2003

Heavy Oil: A Solution to Dwindling Domestic Oil Supplies

Sustainable Transport Coalition: STC Newsletter: Issue 24July2004: An Oil Enigma: Production Falls Even as Reserves Rise
94% (3)
http: //www. stcwa. org. au/ journal/ 24July2004/ 1090639708_ 24353. html
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Sustainable Transport Coalition: STC Newsletter: Issue 24July2004: An Oil Enigma: Production Falls Even as Reserves Rise

i Over that time, ChevronTexaco's proven oil & gas reserves have risen 14 %, more than one 1000000 barrels.  i ChevronTexaco is not the only big oil company whose production is falling despite rising reserves, though it has the largest gap.i Although the reserves are only estimates, federal rules require companies to calculate them conservatively.  i Royal Dutch/Shell, the world's 3rd-largest oil company, admitted this year that it overstated its oil & gas reserves by 22 %, the equivalent of 4.5 billion barrels of oil.i Oil companies face similar pressures to build reserves.i Outsiders have essentially no way to know whether estimates of reserves are accurate, he said.  i But outsiders cannot tell whether companies are properly estimating their reserves, Mr. Gheit said.i No one really knows how much oil remains worldwide, or whether existing fields can be quickly squeezed should more oil suddenly be needed. Estimates range from just under one trillion barrels remaining worldwide, about 34 years at current production levels, to more than two trillion.  i
The Hindu : Business : Production falls even as reserves rise
94% (4)
http: //www. hindu. com/ 2004/ 06/ 14/ stories/ 2004061400641600. htm
13/6/2004

The Hindu : Business : Production falls even as reserves rise

The Looming Crisis in Worldwide Oil Supplies
87% (5)
http: //www. petroleumequities. com/ OilSupplyReport. htm
8/12/2003

The Looming Crisis in Worldwide Oil Supplies

New assessments of global oil reserves show the worldfaces a relentless oil-supply crisis within the next 10 years.  
i But according to new scholarly assessments of oil reserves, the world faces a relentless oil-supply crisis beginning in the early years of this new century.  
Oil Reserves Are Being Severely Depleted
The world is using up its reserves of conventional crude oil at a prodigious rate.i Currently, the median estimate of remaining reserves in known fields is 830 billion barrels. i So if oil consumption remains constant with 995 billion barrels still remaining to be produced, the world's oil supplies will last another 40 years.  i & oil production models show that production cannot remain constant until all oil reserves are exhausted — production rates begin to fall when half the reserves have been produced.  i The cumulative production of all the swing producers themselves will then be beyond the midpoint of their total reserves, & worldwide production of conventional crude oil will lapse into permanent decline.  i Worldwide Look at Reserves & Production," Oil & Gas Journal , Dec 28, 1998.
How Much Oil and Gas is Left?How Much Oil and Gas is Left?
87% (6)
http: //www. spe. org/ spe/ jsp/ basic/ 0, ,1104_ 1008218_ 1109511, 00. html
unknown date

How Much Oil and Gas is Left?How Much Oil and Gas is Left?

i Proved reserves" are the quantities of oil or gas from known reservoirs & expected to be recoverable with current technology & at current economic conditions.i A primary source for worldwide reserves estimates is the Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ).[1] OGJ estimates that at the beginning of 2004, worldwide reserves were 1.27 trillion barrels of oil & 6,100 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. These estimates are 53 billion barrels of oil & 575 trillion cubic feet of natural gas higher than the prior year, reflecting additional discoveries, improving technology, & changing economics.   The countries with the largest amounts of remaining oil reserves are: Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Russia, Libya, & Nigeria.[i At 2003 consumption levels [2], the remaining reserves represent 44.6 years of oil & 66.2 years of natural gas. In fact, the figures for years of remaining reserves have remained relative constant over the past few decades as the industry has replaced consumption with newly discovered oil & gas deposits & has developed technologies to increase the amount of oil & gas that can be recovered from existing reservoirs.  i World oil resources to 2025 may be more than 2 times current reserves, based on an estimate from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) using USGS data. But EIA estimates that in 2025, countries around the globe will still have more than 900 billion barrels of oil remaining to be discovered.i
321energy :: PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT
87% (7)
http: //www. 321energy. com/ editorials/ hirsch/ hirsch031705. html
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321energy :: PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT

The End of Cheap Oil, by Colin J. Campbell, Jean Laherrere
87% (8)
http: //dieoff. org/ page140. htm
13/4/2001

The End of Cheap Oil, by Colin J. Campbell, Jean Laherrere

Issues in S and T, Spring 2005, Peaking Oil Production: Sooner Rather Than Later?
87% (9)
http: //www. issues. org/ issues/ 21. 3/ hirsch. html
unknown date

Issues in S and T, Spring 2005, Peaking Oil Production: Sooner Rather Than Later?

i 1st, extensive drilling for oil & gas has provided a massive worldwide database, & current geological knowledge is more? extensive than in years past.i Nevertheless, the oil reserves discovered per exploratory well have been declining worldwide for more than a decade.i i This multitude of wells also helps to estimate the size of the discovery’s “reserves”: the total amount of recoverable oil in a reservoir.  i Reserves are an estimate of the amount of oil in a reservoir that can be extracted at an assumed cost.i In well-managed oil fields, although estimates of reserves will rise with increases in price, the maximum increase is usually only 10 to 20 % no matter how high the price.  i Reserves estimates are but one factor in estimating future oil production from a given reservoir.i A large oil field can have large estimated reserves, but if the field is past its maximum production, the remaining reserves will be produced at a declining rate.i When world oil production peaks, there will still be large reserves remaining.i In the past, higher prices led to increased estimates of conventional oil reserves worldwide.i
Peaking Of World Oil Production: Parts I & II
87% (10)
http: //www. mnforsustain. org/ oil_ peaking_ of_ world_ oil_ production_ parts1& 2. htm
13/6/2005

Peaking Of World Oil Production: Parts I & II

The End of Cheap Oil
87% (11)
http: //www. dhushara. com/ book/ diversit/ extra/ oil/ oil2. htm
26/5/2004

The End of Cheap Oil

i Dividing that figure by the current production rate of about 23.6 Gbo a year might suggest that crude oil could remain plentiful & cheap for 43 more years - probably longer, as official charts show reserves growing.  i Using several different techniques to estimate the current reserves of conventional oil & the amount still left to be discovered, we conclude that the decline will begin before 2010.  i The 2nd is an estimate of reserves, the amount that companies can pump out of known oil fields before having to abandon them.i EG?, if, as geologists estimate, there is a 90 % chance that the Oseberg field in Norway contains 700 million barrels of recoverable oil but only a 10 % chance that it will yield 2,500 million more barrels, then the lower figure should be cited as the so-called P90 estimate (P90 for "probability 90 %") & the higher as the P10 reserves.   According to our calculations, the world had at the end of 1996 approx 850 Gbo of conventional oil in P50 reserves,substantially less than the 1,019 Gbo reported in the Oil & Gas Journal & the 1,160 Gbo estimated by World Oil. The difference is actually greater than it appears as our value represents the amount most likely to come out of known oil fields, whereas the larger number is supposedly a cautious estimate of proved reserves.  i   GROWTH IN OIL RESERVES since 1980 is an illusion caused by belated corrections to oil-field estimates.i A more important cause of the expansion lies in revisions: oil companies replaced earlier estimates of the reserves left in many fields with higher numbers.i John D. Edwards of the University of Colorado published last Aug one of the most optimistic recent estimates of oil remaining: 2,036 Gbo.i
Scotsman.com News - Top Stories - Fears of dwindling oil supply unfounded
87% (12)
http: //news. scotsman. com/ index. cfm? id= 578462004
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Scotsman.com News - Top Stories - Fears of dwindling oil supply unfounded

The Adelaide Review [Issues and Opinions]
87% (13)
http: //www. adelaidereview. com. au/ issues_ and_ opinions. php? subaction= showfull& id= 1128049935& archive= &start_ from= &ucat= 1&
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The Adelaide Review [Issues and Opinions]

Earth Day '96: Are We Running Out of Oil?
87% (14)
http: //heartland. org/ archives/ earthday96/ outofoil. htm
14/2/2002

Earth Day '96: Are We Running Out of Oil?

i

Proved oil reserves

i But the volume of oil remaining in the ground is unobservable--& therefore highly speculative. Consequently, estimates of the amount of oil remaining in the earth's crust are uncertain.   Current estimates of proved reserves in the U.S. stand at approx 23 billion barrels. Globally, proved oil reserves stand at nearly a trillion barrels, enough to sustain 1993 production for another 45 years.i Perhaps even more surprisingly, oil reserves at the end of that period stood at 23 billion barrels--3 billion barrels more than total reserves in 1945!  i The definition of "proved reserves" was set in 1925, when the American Petroleum Institute (API) defined domestic reserves as the volume of crude oil that geological & engineering information indicate, beyond reasonable doubt, to be recoverable in the future from an oil reservoir under existing economic & operating conditions.i Explicitly excluded was any estimate of future reserve additions at known fields that are probable but not yet proved, as well as future reserves from undiscovered fields, on grounds that "an estimate of reserves which are to come from fields yet to be discovered involves so many uncertainties that it would be grossly inaccurate & misleading."  i These unconventional oil resources are about 3 times as large as the volume of original conventional oil in place, & about 10 times the volume of remaining recoverable conventional oil worldwide.  i
A-list message, [A-List] The End of Cheap Oil
87% (15)
http: //archives. econ. utah. edu/ archives/ a- list/ 2005w02/ msg00017. htm
10/1/2005

A-list message, [A-List] The End of Cheap Oil

i Dividing that figure by the current production rate of about 23.6 billion barrels of oil a year might suggest that crude oil could remain plentiful & cheap for 43 more years - probably longer, as official charts show reserves growing.i Using several different techniques to estimate the current reserves of conventional oil & the amount still left to be discovered, we conclude that the decline will begin before 2010.i The 2nd is an estimate of reserves, the amount that companies can pump out of known oil fields before having to abandon them.i According to our calculations, the world had at the end of 1996 approx 850 billion barrels of oil of conventional oil in P50 reserves - substantially less than the 1,019 billion barrels of oil reported in the Oil & Gas Journal & the 1,160 billion barrels of oil estimated by World Oil. The difference is actually greater than it appears as our value represents the amount most likely to come out of known oil fields, whereas the larger number is supposedly a cautious estimate of proved reserves.i A more important cause of the expansion lies in revisions: oil companies replaced earlier estimates of the reserves left in many fields with higher numbers.i Craig Bond Hatfield of the University of Toledo, eg?, has conducted his own analysis based on a 1991 estimate by the US Geological Survey of 1,550 billion barrels of oil remaining - 55 % higher than our figure.i John D Edwards of the University of Colorado published last Aug one of the most optimistic recent estimates of oil remaining: 2,036 billion barrels of oil.i In view of these potential obstacles, our skeptical estimate is that only 700 billion barrels of oil will be produced from unconventional reserves over the next 60 years.i
Yemen Times Article Print Page
87% (16)
http: //www. yementimes. com/ print_ article. shtml? i= 794& p= business& a= 1
unknown date

Yemen Times Article Print Page

Untitled Document
86% (17)
http: //www. radford. edu/ ~wkovarik/ oil/ 5oilreservehistory. html
unknown date

Untitled Document

  1. Comparison of USGS & oil industry reserve estimates
  2. Unconventional oil reserves
i • 1882 -- Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain.i • 1920 -- David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels. "In making this estimate,..., White conceded that it might well be in error by as much as 25 %."i • 1926 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain.   • 1932 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain.   • 1944 -- Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrelsof oil remain.  i • 1980 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 648 billion barrels  i
Volume of World Petroleum Reserves
85% (18)
http: //hypertextbook. com/ facts/ 2000/ EvanAbel. shtml
unknown date

Volume of World Petroleum Reserves

Oil Crisis
85% (19)
http: //healthandenergy. com/ oil_ crisis. htm
3/10/2005

Oil Crisis

WorldNetDaily: The end of the age of oil?
85% (20)
http: //worldnetdaily. com/ news/ article. asp? ARTICLE_ ID= 41613
unknown date

WorldNetDaily: The end of the age of oil?

i Currently, the world's recognized reserves of oil are higher than at any time in history.i The USGS reports in the "World Petroleum Assessment 2000" that world reserves of conventional crude oil total 3,000 billion barrels.i The major media focus with myopic intensity on conventional crude reserves, ignoring stunning reserves of oil located in tar sands & oil shale.i Worldwide, recoverable reserves of oil found in oil sands are currently reported in excess of 1,000 billion barrels.i Worldwide, oil-shale reserves are estimated as high as 14,000 billion barrels.i Worldwide reserves of 14,000 billion barrels are sufficient to provide the world's crude oil requirements for at least several 100 years.i
  • In 1950,..., the Department of Interior again projected the end of the age of oil by 1963.
i By 1942, after 43 years of continuous pumping, remaining Kern River oil was estimated at 54 million barrels.i
1995 Assessment of Conventionally Recoverable Hydrocarbon Resources of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf
85% (21)
http: //www. gomr. mms. gov/ homepg/ offshore/ gulfocs/ assessment/ summary. html
unknown date

1995 Assessment of Conventionally Recoverable Hydrocarbon Resources of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf

i The Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico OCS total endowment,..., is estimated to be between 23.016 & 28.688 Bbo & 280.808 & 320.533 Tcfg (73.811 & 84.626 billion barrels of oil equivalent [BBOE]).i Nearly 15 Bbo & 177 Tcfg (46 BBOE), or approx 59 %, of this mean total endowment is represented by cumulative production, remaining proved reserves, unproved reserves, & reserves appreciation. The estimates of UCRR for oil range from 8.017 to 13.689 Bbbl; the estimates for gas range from 104.286 to 144.011 Tcf; & the estimates for BOE range from 27.402 to 38.217 Bbbl. The mean estimates of UCRR are 10.615 Bbo & 123.140 Tcfg (32.526 BBOE). There are beneath the Gulf of Mexico & Atlantic Continental Margin approx 13.679 to 19.351 Bbbl of remaining conventionally recoverable oil, with a mean of 16.276 Bbbl. This includes remaining reserves (...), reserves appreciation, & UCRR. The estimates of remaining conventionally recoverable gas resources range from 168.175 to 207.900 Tcf, with a mean of 187.029 Tcf; & the estimates of remaining conventionally recoverable BOE resources range from 44.432 to 55.247 Bbbl, with a mean of 49.556 Bbbl. Based on BOE, most of these mean resources, 86 %, are again believed to be in the Gulf of Mexico Region.  i In the full-cycle, $18/bbl scenario, the estimates of UERR for oil range from 4.364 to 7.094 Bbbl; the estimates for gas range from 57.252 to 70.695 Tcf; & the estimates for BOE range from 14.551 to 19.674 Bbbl. The mean estimates of UERR are 5.350 Bbo & 63.295 Tcfg (16.613 BBOE). In the $30/bbl scenario, the estimates of mean UERR increase by approx 43 % for oil & 35 % for gas.   In the half-cycle, $18/bbl scenario, the estimates of UERR for oil range from 4.791 to 7.374 Bbbl; the estimates for gas range from 62.301 to 76.883 Tcf; & the estimates for BOE range from 15.876 to 21.055 Bbbl. The mean estimates of UERR are 5.784 Bbo & 68.462 Tcfg (17.966 BBOE).i
FRB: Speech, Greenspan--Oil--October 15, 2004
85% (22)
http: //www. federalreserve. gov/ boarddocs/ speeches/ 2004/ 200410152/ default. htm
15/10/2004

FRB: Speech, Greenspan--Oil--October 15, 2004

i This concern emerges periodically in large measure as of the inherent uncertainty of estimates of worldwide reserves.i Increasingly sophisticated techniques have facilitated far deeper drilling of promising fields, especially offshore, & have significantly increased the average proportion of oil reserves eventually brought to the surface. During the past decade, despite more than 250 billion barrels of oil extracted worldwide, net proved reserves rose in excess of 100 billion barrels. That is, gross additions to reserves have significantly exceeded the extraction of oil the reserves replaced.i I exclude from these calculations the reported vast reserves of so-called unconventional oils eg? Canadian tar sands & Venezuelan heavy oil.  i But those elevated margins were quickly eroded by competition, thus allowing gasoline prices to actually fall during the summer months even as crude oil prices remained firm.i Should future balances between supply & demand remain precarious, incentives for oil consumers in developed countries to decrease the oil intensity of their economies will doubtless continue.i After the breakup of Standard Oil in 1911, pricing power remained with the United States--1st with the U.S. oil companies & later with the Texas Railroad Commission, which raised allowable output to suppress price spikes & cut output to prevent sharp price declines.i
ASPO the Association for the Study of Peak Oil
85% (23)
http: //www. peakoil. net/ iwood2003/ abstracts/ GerlingRempel. html
3/6/2003

ASPO the Association for the Study of Peak Oil

i
The World’s Endowment with Natural Gas: The Perspective from BGR’s New Energy Study J. Peter Gerling & Hilmar Rempel Natural gas accounts for about 24% of the worldwide primary energy consumption, after crude oil & hard coal. The global estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) determined in this study for conventional natural gas is about 447 T.m³ corresponding to about 353 Gtoe, which is about the same as the EUR for conventional oil.i Their energy content corresponds to about 84% of the global reserves of conventional crude oil.i The global remaining conventional natural gas potential is about 337 T.m³, with an energy content about 26% above that of the remaining conventional oil potential.i Half of the total reserves discovered up to this time will have been consumed by 2019, assuming annual production remains the same & reserves aren't increased by new discoveries & enhanced production methods.i Global reserves of non-conventional natural gas are estimated to amount to only 2 T.m³, as recovery technology is available only for coal-seam gas & tight reservoirs. We estimate non-conventional natural gas resources (...) to amount to about 220 T.m³, which is about half of the estimated ultimate recovery of conventional natural gas.i Demonstrated global reserves of natural gas will last until mid-century, assuming production remains at the same level as at present.
End of the Oil Age
85% (24)
http: //www. times. org/ archives/ 2000/ oilage. htm
31/1/2005

End of the Oil Age

Blood for Oil?
85% (25)
http: //www. globalsecurity. org/ military/ library/ report/ 2003/ main0903. htm
unknown date

Blood for Oil?

i 1] Despite the administration’s repeated denials, “No Blood for Oil” became the rallying cry of anti-war activists worldwide. [i 10] Today, the most recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report forecasts a mean estimate of the world’s recoverable oil to be three trillion barrels – three times the cumulative amount the world consumed in the entire 20 th century! i Since oil became a major energy source about 100 years ago, about 539 billion barrels of oil have been produced outside of the U.S. We now estimate the total amount of future technically recoverable oil, outside the U.S., to be about 2,120 billion barrels." [i Location Only about 3% of the world’s remaining proved oil reserves are found in the U.S. [16] In contrast, 2-thirds of the world’s reserves are located in the Middle East. [ 1: Distribution of Oil Reserves  i 18] , [19] Based on these figures, Dr. Chapman estimates the remaining value of the Middle East’s untapped oil at $61 trillion. [i Today, 30 years after the peak in U.S. production, with only 3% of the world’s remaining proved reserves, we are still the 3rd largest oil producer in the world, extracting 7.7 million barrels of oil per day in 2002.   i [49] The USGS estimates the world has about 9 quadrillion cubic feet of proved & undiscovered reserves of natural gas remaining, which is the energy equivalent of another 1.4 trillion barrels of oil. i
ASA - December 2004: The end of the age of oil?
85% (26)
http: //www. asa3. org/ archive/ asa/ 200412/ 0004. html
3/12/2004

ASA - December 2004: The end of the age of oil?

WHAT FUTURE FOR EXTRA HEAVY OIL AND BITUMEN : THE ORINOCO CASE
85% (27)
http: //www. worldenergy. org/ wec- geis/ publications/ default/ tech_ papers/ 17th_ congress/ 3_ 1_ 04. asp
unknown date

WHAT FUTURE FOR EXTRA HEAVY OIL AND BITUMEN : THE ORINOCO CASE

Grandfather Economic Energy Report - World section - by MWHodges
85% (28)
http: //mwhodges. home. att. net/ energy/ energy- b. htm
7/9/2005

Grandfather Economic Energy Report - World section - by MWHodges

Science News Online (10/31/98): Geologists anticipate an oil crisis soon
85% (29)
http: //www. sciencenews. org/ pages/ sn_ arc98/ 10_ 31_ 98/ fob6. htm
19/12/2003

Science News Online (10/31/98): Geologists anticipate an oil crisis soon

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data
85% (30)
http: //www. eia. doe. gov/ oiaf/ ieo/ nat_ gas. html
28/9/2005

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data

As of Jan 1, 2005, proved world natural gas reserves, as reported by Oil & Gas Journal, 3 were estimated at 6,040 trillion cubic feet—36 trillion cubic feet (less than 1 %) lower than the estimate for 2004 [ 1 ].i The Australian government reported a 2-thirds cut in its estimate of natural gas reserves between 2004 & 2005, from 90 trillion cubic feet to 29 trillion cubic feet.i In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia increased its estimate of reserves by 4 trillion cubic feet (2 %), accounting for all of the region’s addition to reserves. Elsewhere, national estimates of natural gas reserves changed little over the 1-year period.  i Despite high rates of increase in natural gas consumption, particularly over the past decade, most regional reserves-to-production ratios have remained high. Worldwide, the reserves-to-production ratio is estimated at 66.7 years [ 2 ].i The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically assesses the long-term production potential of worldwide petroleum resources (...). According to the most recent USGS estimates, released in the World Petroleum Assessment 2000, a significant volume of natural gas remains to be discovered.
'Peak Oil' - GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS LOOMING
85% (31)
http: //www. btinternet. com/ ~nlpwessex/ Documents/ energycrisis. htm
26/9/2005

'Peak Oil' - GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS LOOMING

Industry StatisticsIndustry Statistics
83% (32)
http: //www. spe. org/ spe/ jsp/ basic/ 0, ,1104_ 1718, 00. html
unknown date

Industry StatisticsIndustry Statistics

About Oil & Natural Gas | Industry Statistics
Statistics on current oil prices or historical trends in the oil & gas industry can be found in numerous places. API prepared a study that estimates volumes of E&P wastes in the U.S., which may be available for download through their website.  i Oil & Gas Journal — The Oil & Gas Journal is a primary source for oil & gas reserves by country worldwide, along with oil production (...) & producing oil wells estimates.i U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics — BLS estimates employment & earnings for various occupations within the U.S. oil & gas industry. World Oil — World Oil is one of the only sources of data on the number of wells drilled by country.i
The Hindu : Business News : Monday, June 14, 2004
83% (33)
http: //www. hindu. com/ 2004/ 06/ 14/ 06hdline. htm
13/6/2004

The Hindu : Business News : Monday, June 14, 2004

Executive Summary(Contents) - DDS-60
83% (34)
http: //pubs. usgs. gov/ dds/ dds- 060/ ESpt1. html
unknown date

Executive Summary(Contents) - DDS-60

Lateline - 22/11/2004: Running out of oil
83% (35)
http: //www. abc. net. au/ lateline/ content/ 2004/ s1249210. htm
unknown date

Lateline - 22/11/2004: Running out of oil

i This would mean the world is then eating into the 2nd half of all available oil reserves.i Some think we could reach the peak in world oil supply & next year start using up the 2nd half of all the world's reserves.COLIN CAMPBELL, OIL DEPLETION ANALYSIS CENTRE: Everybody has come to imagine that the flow of oil is like the rivers that flow from the mountains to the sea.i He studies exploration data & information about reserves of both oil companies & exporting nations.Though new oil reserves are still being located they aren't the big quality fields like those previously found in the Middle East, Texas or even Australia.EG?, oil countries have lied about the size of their reserves, giving them bigger quotas under OPEC rules.But Colin Campbell remains confident of his oil peak estimate.i STEPHEN McDONELL: None of the oil companies would be interviewed by Lateline about the question of the oil peak.i
PPT Slide
83% (36)
http: //www. eia. doe. gov/ pub/ oil_ gas/ petroleum/ presentations/ 2000/ long_ term_ supply/ sld020. htm
8/3/2001

PPT Slide

GIS in an Overview of Iraq Petroleum Geology, by Jingyao Gong and Larry Gerken, #10041 (2003).
83% (37)
http: //www. searchanddiscovery. net/ documents/ gong03/ index. htm
25/4/2003

GIS in an Overview of Iraq Petroleum Geology, by Jingyao Gong and Larry Gerken, #10041 (2003).

Oil market tightness is likely long term
83% (38)
http: //www. fromthewilderness. com/ free/ ww3/ 031904_ peak_ reality. html
15/8/2005

Oil market tightness is likely long term

i If the depletionists are right, global production of conventional crude oil should be peaking within the next couple of years, at somewhere in the neighbourhood of 65 million barrels a day.   Recent production estimates from the International Energy Agency show global oil production in Jan is already well through that mark at 82 million barrels. But the IEA numbers include eight million barrels a day of non-conventional production eg? oil sands & deep-water oil, & another eight million to nine million barrels of liquefied natural gas.   Excluding the brief period when Kuwaiti & Iraqi oil wells were ablaze during the Persian Gulf war, OPEC has not operated with such spare capacity -- 2.7 million barrels a day at present -- in nearly 30 years.  i & even the remaining reserves in the Middle East may be substantially smaller than currently believed. Just last month, Royal Dutch/Shell, the world's 3rd-largest oil company, cut its estimate of its global proven reserves by a whopping 20 per cent.  i EG?, the much-anticipated Arctic gas reserves are no more than the equivalent of a medium-sized oil field.i But economists are right to believe that as oil prices rise, previously uneconomic sources of oil supply will suddenly become economic to exploit.i
Oil depletion: Overview, links and resources
79% (39)
http: //quasar. physik. unibas. ch/ ~fisker/ 401/ oil/ oil. html
3/10/2005

Oil depletion: Overview, links and resources

i Although its ?reasonably clear how much oil has been extracted from the ground (...) & what the current rate of extraction is, it is debated how much oil is actually left (...) & how much of it will be extracted (...).  

How oil reserves are estimated

i Reserves include the amount of oil which can & will be extracted with a given probability. the amount of oil which can be extracted with a 90% probability is usually refered to as proven reserves.
  1. i Once all resources have been turned into reserves no more oil can be discovered. The total amount of reserves can be estimated by noticing that the biggest fields are found & developed 1st afterwhich increasingly smaller fields are found & brought into production.i
Governments & oil companies some of which have economic turnovers compared to the GNP of entire countries might not benefit from revealing their true reserves, since many political & economic decisions depend on these numbers.i The opposing view is that the initial estimate was wrong & the reserves (...) has not grown.i i i i
Oil Shock - Obele Oil Corporation
79% (40)
http: //www. obeleoil. com/ oilshock2. htm
10/11/2003

Oil Shock - Obele Oil Corporation

Peaking Of World Oil Production: Appendices
79% (41)
http: //www. mnforsustain. org/ oil_ peaking_ of_ world_ oil_ production_ appendix. htm
15/6/2005

Peaking Of World Oil Production: Appendices

running out of oil
78% (42)
http: //dieoff. org/ page90. htm
13/4/2001

running out of oil

Non-OPEC Fact Sheet
78% (43)
http: //www. eia. doe. gov/ emeu/ cabs/ nonopec. html
28/6/2005

Non-OPEC Fact Sheet

II. Worldwide fossil fuel and uranium reserves (See Tables 2-4, Maps 1-3.)
78% (44)
http: //66. 102. 9. 104/ search? q= cache: OuUkJJESzHIJ: www. rff. org/ rff/ News/ Features/ loader. cfm
unknown date

II. Worldwide fossil fuel and uranium reserves (See Tables 2-4, Maps 1-3.)

Alexander's Gas & Oil Connections - The cheap-oil era is far from over
78% (45)
http: //www. gasandoil. com/ goc/ features/ fex42299. htm
unknown date

Alexander's Gas & Oil Connections - The cheap-oil era is far from over

Overview: Conventional Oil
78% (46)
http: //www. physics. emich. edu/ ebehringer/ FossilFuels/ overview_ oil. html
30/7/2004

Overview: Conventional Oil

The Great Rollover Juggernaut - World Oil Depletion and the Inevitable Crisis
78% (47)
http: //www. durangobill. com/ Rollover. html
11/9/2005

The Great Rollover Juggernaut - World Oil Depletion and the Inevitable Crisis

i Recent Signs of Trouble Matt Simmons CSIS 2/24/04 presentation: "Proven reserve write-off is likely worldwide" Aramco's 2/24/04 definition of Saudi Arabia's "Proved Reserves" - just include all past production.i its ?an early admission that what is left of the world's oil reserves is shrinking.i Would you like to guess how many executives of other major oil companies will be eager tell the truth about their reserves?i 1st, published tables of world oil reserves are based on what individual countries claim as "proved reserves".i In the late 1980's all the Middle East countries inflated their "proved reserves" to maintain their share of OPEC production after Venezuela added "heavy oil" to its reserves.i An article in the June 17, 2002 issue of the Oil & Gas Journal pointed out these "claimed" estimates should be lowered by 180 billion barrels.i A technical article posted at: http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/gong03/index.htm indicates that remaining expected recovery (...) in Iraq's 28 largest oilfields is only 41 billion barrels.i A mathematical calculation using this data indicates the world's remaining reserves in these giant fields (...) is less than one trillion barrels of oil equivalent.i
Iraq and the Problem of Peak Oil
78% (48)
http: //www. globalresearch. ca/ articles/ ENG408A. html
31/3/2005

Iraq and the Problem of Peak Oil

peak oil
78% (49)
http: //www. naturalchoice. net/ articles/ peakoil. htm
18/8/2005

peak oil

i Exxon/Mobile’s study, “A Report on Energy Trends, Greenhouse Gas Emissions & Alternative Energy” dramatically shows that all existing oil & gas production worldwide can’t meet total world demand by around 2003-2004! Even if production remained constant, the amount of oil available on a per-capita level is declining due to unrelenting global population growth. As cheap, easily extracted oil is depleted, the remaining oil is increasingly difficult & expensive to extract.i Beware of the pundits’ estimates of “Proven Reserves.”i But reserves are past estimates of oil, made by different people & companies using different methods.i On Jan 12, 2004, Shell Oil restated their balance sheet by reducing their “proven” oil reserves by 20 %.i In Feb 2004, El Paso Corporation cuts its proven natural gas reserves estimate by 41%.i But does it serve the interest of OPEC to accurately state their reserves or to inflate them so that they can sell more oil & make more money?  i
http: //www. prospect. org/ print- friendly/ print/ V12/ 18/ deffeyes- k. html
78% (50)
http: //www. prospect. org/ print- friendly/ print/ V12/ 18/ deffeyes- k. html
unknown date

"http: //www. prospect. org/ print- friendly/ print/ V12/ 18/ deffeyes- k. html"

i During each ensuing decade, more oil reserves would be added & the industry actually would grow instead of drying up.i Around 1995 several analysts began applying Hubbert's method to worldwide oil production. Most of them estimate that the peak year for world oil will be between 2004 & 2008.i The production curve, he found, lags consistently behind the bell curve of cumulative oil discoveries (...). But reliable estimates of oil reserves are a vital ingredient in a Hubbert analysis, & this leads to the chief difficulty in using the method to predict the peak of world oil production: In the late 1980s, several OPEC nations reported huge, abrupt increases in their oil reserves. OPEC had recently changed its rules, assigning each member nation a share of the oil market based not just on the country's annual production capacity but also on its oil reserves.i Oil reserves are defined as future production, using existing technology, from wells that have already been drilled. It's a lot more fun to go into the boss's office next year & announce that there is actually a little more oil than last year's estimate predicted.i

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