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On 04/10/2005 Software Scientific's Concept Engine TM read 1,000 documents and considered 36,244 links
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An Oil Enigma: Production Falls Even as Reserves Rise | EnergyBulletin.net | Energy and Peak Oil News
Heavy Oil: A Solution to Dwindling Domestic Oil Supplies
Sustainable Transport Coalition: STC Newsletter: Issue 24July2004: An Oil Enigma: Production Falls Even as Reserves Rise
The Hindu : Business : Production falls even as reserves rise
The Looming Crisis in Worldwide Oil SuppliesNew assessments of global oil reserves show the worldfaces a relentless oil-supply crisis within the next 10 years.
How Much Oil and Gas is Left?How Much Oil and Gas is Left?
321energy :: PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT
The End of Cheap Oil, by Colin J. Campbell, Jean Laherrere
Issues in S and T, Spring 2005, Peaking Oil Production: Sooner Rather Than Later?i 1st, extensive drilling for oil & gas has provided a massive worldwide database, & current geological knowledge is more? extensive than in years past.i Nevertheless, the oil reserves discovered per exploratory well have been declining worldwide for more than a decade.i i This multitude of wells also helps to estimate the size of the discovery’s “reserves”: the total amount of recoverable oil in a reservoir. i Reserves are an estimate of the amount of oil in a reservoir that can be extracted at an assumed cost.i In well-managed oil fields, although estimates of reserves will rise with increases in price, the maximum increase is usually only 10 to 20 % no matter how high the price. i Reserves estimates are but one factor in estimating future oil production from a given reservoir.i A large oil field can have large estimated reserves, but if the field is past its maximum production, the remaining reserves will be produced at a declining rate.i When world oil production peaks, there will still be large reserves remaining.i In the past, higher prices led to increased estimates of conventional oil reserves worldwide.i
Peaking Of World Oil Production: Parts I & II
The End of Cheap Oili Dividing that figure by the current production rate of about 23.6 Gbo a year might suggest that crude oil could remain plentiful & cheap for 43 more years - probably longer, as official charts show reserves growing. i Using several different techniques to estimate the current reserves of conventional oil & the amount still left to be discovered, we conclude that the decline will begin before 2010. i The 2nd is an estimate of reserves, the amount that companies can pump out of known oil fields before having to abandon them.i EG?, if, as geologists estimate, there is a 90 % chance that the Oseberg field in Norway contains 700 million barrels of recoverable oil but only a 10 % chance that it will yield 2,500 million more barrels, then the lower figure should be cited as the so-called P90 estimate (P90 for "probability 90 %") & the higher as the P10 reserves. According to our calculations, the world had at the end of 1996 approx 850 Gbo of conventional oil in P50 reserves,substantially less than the 1,019 Gbo reported in the Oil & Gas Journal & the 1,160 Gbo estimated by World Oil. The difference is actually greater than it appears as our value represents the amount most likely to come out of known oil fields, whereas the larger number is supposedly a cautious estimate of proved reserves. i GROWTH IN OIL RESERVES since 1980 is an illusion caused by belated corrections to oil-field estimates.i A more important cause of the expansion lies in revisions: oil companies replaced earlier estimates of the reserves left in many fields with higher numbers.i John D. Edwards of the University of Colorado published last Aug one of the most optimistic recent estimates of oil remaining: 2,036 Gbo.i
Scotsman.com News - Top Stories - Fears of dwindling oil supply unfounded
The Adelaide Review [Issues and Opinions]
Earth Day '96: Are We Running Out of Oil?i
Proved oil reservesi But the volume of oil remaining in the ground is unobservable--& therefore highly speculative. Consequently, estimates of the amount of oil remaining in the earth's crust are uncertain. Current estimates of proved reserves in the U.S. stand at approx 23 billion barrels. Globally, proved oil reserves stand at nearly a trillion barrels, enough to sustain 1993 production for another 45 years.i Perhaps even more surprisingly, oil reserves at the end of that period stood at 23 billion barrels--3 billion barrels more than total reserves in 1945! i The definition of "proved reserves" was set in 1925, when the American Petroleum Institute (API) defined domestic reserves as the volume of crude oil that geological & engineering information indicate, beyond reasonable doubt, to be recoverable in the future from an oil reservoir under existing economic & operating conditions.i Explicitly excluded was any estimate of future reserve additions at known fields that are probable but not yet proved, as well as future reserves from undiscovered fields, on grounds that "an estimate of reserves which are to come from fields yet to be discovered involves so many uncertainties that it would be grossly inaccurate & misleading." i These unconventional oil resources are about 3 times as large as the volume of original conventional oil in place, & about 10 times the volume of remaining recoverable conventional oil worldwide. i
A-list message, [A-List] The End of Cheap Oili Dividing that figure by the current production rate of about 23.6 billion barrels of oil a year might suggest that crude oil could remain plentiful & cheap for 43 more years - probably longer, as official charts show reserves growing.i Using several different techniques to estimate the current reserves of conventional oil & the amount still left to be discovered, we conclude that the decline will begin before 2010.i The 2nd is an estimate of reserves, the amount that companies can pump out of known oil fields before having to abandon them.i According to our calculations, the world had at the end of 1996 approx 850 billion barrels of oil of conventional oil in P50 reserves - substantially less than the 1,019 billion barrels of oil reported in the Oil & Gas Journal & the 1,160 billion barrels of oil estimated by World Oil. The difference is actually greater than it appears as our value represents the amount most likely to come out of known oil fields, whereas the larger number is supposedly a cautious estimate of proved reserves.i A more important cause of the expansion lies in revisions: oil companies replaced earlier estimates of the reserves left in many fields with higher numbers.i Craig Bond Hatfield of the University of Toledo, eg?, has conducted his own analysis based on a 1991 estimate by the US Geological Survey of 1,550 billion barrels of oil remaining - 55 % higher than our figure.i John D Edwards of the University of Colorado published last Aug one of the most optimistic recent estimates of oil remaining: 2,036 billion barrels of oil.i In view of these potential obstacles, our skeptical estimate is that only 700 billion barrels of oil will be produced from unconventional reserves over the next 60 years.i
Yemen Times Article Print Page
Volume of World Petroleum Reserves
WorldNetDaily: The end of the age of oil?
1995 Assessment of Conventionally Recoverable Hydrocarbon Resources of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf
FRB: Speech, Greenspan--Oil--October 15, 2004
ASPO the Association for the Study of Peak Oil
End of the Oil Age
Blood for Oil?
ASA - December 2004: The end of the age of oil?
WHAT FUTURE FOR EXTRA HEAVY OIL AND BITUMEN : THE ORINOCO CASE
Grandfather Economic Energy Report - World section - by MWHodges
Science News Online (10/31/98): Geologists anticipate an oil crisis soon
EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data
'Peak Oil' - GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS LOOMING
Industry StatisticsIndustry Statistics
The Hindu : Business News : Monday, June 14, 2004
Executive Summary(Contents) - DDS-60
Lateline - 22/11/2004: Running out of oil
GIS in an Overview of Iraq Petroleum Geology, by Jingyao Gong and Larry Gerken, #10041 (2003).
Oil market tightness is likely long term
Oil depletion: Overview, links and resourcesi Although its ?reasonably clear how much oil has been extracted from the ground (...) & what the current rate of extraction is, it is debated how much oil is actually left (...) & how much of it will be extracted (...). i Reserves include the amount of oil which can & will be extracted with a given probability. the amount of oil which can be extracted with a 90% probability is usually refered to as proven reserves.
Oil Shock - Obele Oil Corporation
Peaking Of World Oil Production: Appendices
running out of oil
Non-OPEC Fact Sheet
II. Worldwide fossil fuel and uranium reserves (See Tables 2-4, Maps 1-3.)
Alexander's Gas & Oil Connections - The cheap-oil era is far from over
Overview: Conventional Oil
The Great Rollover Juggernaut - World Oil Depletion and the Inevitable Crisisi Recent Signs of Trouble Matt Simmons CSIS 2/24/04 presentation: "Proven reserve write-off is likely worldwide" Aramco's 2/24/04 definition of Saudi Arabia's "Proved Reserves" - just include all past production.i its ?an early admission that what is left of the world's oil reserves is shrinking.i Would you like to guess how many executives of other major oil companies will be eager tell the truth about their reserves?i 1st, published tables of world oil reserves are based on what individual countries claim as "proved reserves".i In the late 1980's all the Middle East countries inflated their "proved reserves" to maintain their share of OPEC production after Venezuela added "heavy oil" to its reserves.i An article in the June 17, 2002 issue of the Oil & Gas Journal pointed out these "claimed" estimates should be lowered by 180 billion barrels.i A technical article posted at: http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/gong03/index.htm indicates that remaining expected recovery (...) in Iraq's 28 largest oilfields is only 41 billion barrels.i A mathematical calculation using this data indicates the world's remaining reserves in these giant fields (...) is less than one trillion barrels of oil equivalent.i
Iraq and the Problem of Peak Oil
"http: //www. prospect. org/ print- friendly/ print/ V12/ 18/ deffeyes- k. html"i During each ensuing decade, more oil reserves would be added & the industry actually would grow instead of drying up.i Around 1995 several analysts began applying Hubbert's method to worldwide oil production. Most of them estimate that the peak year for world oil will be between 2004 & 2008.i The production curve, he found, lags consistently behind the bell curve of cumulative oil discoveries (...). But reliable estimates of oil reserves are a vital ingredient in a Hubbert analysis, & this leads to the chief difficulty in using the method to predict the peak of world oil production: In the late 1980s, several OPEC nations reported huge, abrupt increases in their oil reserves. OPEC had recently changed its rules, assigning each member nation a share of the oil market based not just on the country's annual production capacity but also on its oil reserves.i Oil reserves are defined as future production, using existing technology, from wells that have already been drilled. It's a lot more fun to go into the boss's office next year & announce that there is actually a little more oil than last year's estimate predicted.i
|Research & summaries produced by Software Scientific Ltd|
-- (c) James Lea, www.GreenLiving.co.uk, 2005 --